Severe Storms Likely Today
Good Wednesday Morning,
While nothing has significantly changed since my morning forecast I wanted to send one more note explicitly focused on today’s severe weather risk.
The Storm Prediction Center / National Weather Service continues to have Champaign County and surrounding areas of central Illinois in a level 4 of 5 moderate risk for severe weather on their latest severe weather outlook for today (Wed, June 17).
At 9:45 AM a line of storms was moving into central Illinois, likely to impact Champaign County between 11 AM and 1 PM. Damaging wind gusts over 60 mph and an isolated tornado embedded within the line will be the primary concern. In the last hour there has been some weakening with this line of storms - this doesn’t mean we won’t see damaging winds across the county, but my concern for widespread 80-100 mph winds and damaging tornadoes with this morning round of storms is declining for now.
The more significant risk continues to be focused on the late afternoon and evening hours when a second round of storms that may have a more significant risk of damaging tornadoes is possible, primarily between 4:00 PM and 10:00 PM. There is still some uncertainty around how unstable the atmosphere becomes after the morning round - there is strong evidence from forecast models that we will destabilize enough for this next round, which is why the Storm Prediction Center has maintained a level 4 of 5 risk. That said, there is still at least some potential the second more significant round is messy and unable to organize, or focuses south of our area.
All that to say - stay prepared, but don’t be paralyzed in fear that we’re facing certain-trouble. We’ve seen these risks before and know the drill. Even in a worst case scenario today, most tornadoes are completely survivable if you take some simple action when a warning is issued.
If tornado warnings approach Champaign-Urbana I will be on air with Illinois Public Media at WILL AM 580, FM 90.9, and online at will.illinois.edu
Thank you and be safe!
Andrew
Thank you so much for all your work. I have terrible storm/severe weather anxiety but your informative, logical, level-headed updates help a whole lot. Stay safe, and take good care!